Global Hotels: Back of the net (profits) - 26Q2 preview

Research evidence excerpt

Global Hotels: Back of the net (profits) - 26Q2 preview

24 July 2026

Global Hotels & Leisure

Much was made of the impact of the World Cup on 2026 US RevPAR towards the end of Richard J. Clarke, FCA

+44 20 7676 6850 2025, with the building excitement then cooled by stories of pricing moderating and FIFA

richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com canceling reservations. However, the data is now in - the World Cup has been a material

boost to US hotel demand. US RevPAR in June was 8.4%, ahead of every major region for

Niall Mitchelson the first time since the prior to the pandemic. With the US the most important region for every

+44 20 7676 7144

niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com asset light hotel group, we expect RevPAR and EBITDA beats across the board. However, we

expect this is now largely expected - asset light hotel stocks have well outpaced the index

Lasith Siriwardana YTD, and now sit at close to all-time high multiples. As a result we retain our preference for

+44 20 7550 2191 Hyatt, which offers the greatest exposure to the strongest segment (Luxury) and the softest

lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com

1H27 comps which should drive continued growth acceleration. The long term picture also

looks strong, with industry leading NUG, a mix shift towards asset light fee streams, and an

inflection in FCF all at a 2-4X discount to peers (on EV/EBITDA).

A strong finish to Q2, courtesy of the World Cup. Q2 was a strong quarter for hotel

demand, with RevPAR up 5.6% across Q2 at an industry level in the US, with easing comps

(from Liberation day) aiding April and May, and the World Cup driving 8.4% growth in

June. Although the higher end continued to drive this performance (Luxury +10.2%),

RevPAR grew through the quarter across every chain scale (Economy up 1.3%). Although