Best of Times, Worst of Times: Lodging & Cruise - if they come, will they build them?

Research evidence excerpt

Best of Times, Worst of Times: Lodging & Cruise - if they come, will they build them?

6 July 2026

Global Hotels & Leisure

Best of Times, Worst of Times: Lodging & Cruise - if they come,

will they build them?

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”. The famous opening line of Charles Richard J. Clarke, FCA

+44 20 7676 6850 Dickens’ ‘A Tale of Two Cities’ captures a period of contradiction: the French aristocracy

richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com indulging in opulence and privilege, the peasantry experiencing poverty and oppression.

While 2026 is thankfully not 18th century France, shifting class dynamics remain more

Niall Mitchelson topical than ever, from the US K-shaped economy to the squeezed Chinese middle class.

+44 20 7676 7144

niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com Travel, particularly leisure, has been a key beneficiary of the K-shaped recovery, with spend

increasingly concentrated among higher-income cohorts. The sector is also exhibiting

Lasith Siriwardana its own internal K-shape: from January–May 2026, US hotel revenues grew 9.1% in the

+44 20 7550 2191 luxury segment while declining 2.7% in economy. Similar divergence is evident across

lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com

cruise and airline markets. In cruise and aviation, supply is responding in line with market

equilibrium theory, with high-end capacity expanding to meet demand. Hotel development,

Sabrina Blanc

+33 1 42 13 47 32 however, tells a different story. Despite strong demand signals, supply growth has been

sabrina.blanc@bernsteinsg.com more pronounced in Upscale through Midscale than in Luxury. This raises a key question:

are developers anticipating a different demand outlook, or is demand just one of several

factors guiding decisions? Elevated financing, construction, and labor costs may be