BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE

Research evidence excerpt

BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE

17 July 2026

Global Hotels & Leisure

OTAs: Healthy scoreboard, but plenty of football left to play (Q2

preview)

Despite a Q1 dominated by concerns on travel demand following the onset of conflict in Richard J. Clarke, FCA

+44 20 7676 6850 the Middle East, and exacerbated by pessimistic Q2 guidance from the online travel names,

richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com Q2 traffic data points to a strong demand quarter. We expect LSD room night beats from

all, and are 2-4% ahead of Q2 consensus EBITDA. However, the clouds don't look to have

Niall Mitchelson cleared entirely; early Q3 traffic data (first 2 weeks of July) points to a slowdown in demand,

+44 20 7676 7144

niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com potentially weighing on guidance, while AI remains a key topic, and there are early signs AI

traffic is beginning to inflect upwards in online travel - a disruptive force. ABNB is our top

Lasith Siriwardana pick - the most insulated from AI, with the greatest number of top line growth levers to pull

+44 20 7550 2191 beyond underlying demand; we also model the largest EBITDA beat (4%) and the fastest

lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com

room night growth at ABNB in Q2.

Traffic data implies a LSD room night beat for all OTAs. After a relatively weak Q2 guide

from the OTAs with Middle East driven uncertainty weighing, app and web traffic implies the

demand picture has been more robust than expected. All the major OTAs grew web traffic in

the LDD, and app traffic remained robust in the HSD for most. As a result we are expecting

a 1.5-3% beat to room nights, which we expect to flow through to a 2-4% EBITDA beat.

ABNB looks best positioned, leading on expected Q2 night growth at 11.2% (vs 6.7% /

7.2% at BKNG / EXPE), with the biggest EBITDA beat expected (4%).