US Leisure: Unusual ‘26 Challenges Could Seep into ‘27, but This Too Shall Pass

Research evidence excerpt

US Leisure: Unusual ‘26 Challenges Could Seep into ‘27, but This Too Shall Pass

US Leisure

20 July 2026 Citi Research

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ: NCLH) is the third-largest

cruise company in the world, commanding 13% of the worldwide fleet and 11%

of worldwide capacity prior to the pandemic. NCLH was founded in 1966,

headquartered in Miami, Florida and incorporated in Bermuda. NCLH

operates 28 ships with an aggregate capacity of 55,150 beds (berths) under

the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises

brands.

Investment strategy

We rate Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) a Buy. If the updated guidance is

effectively de-risked, the potential range of outcomes as we look to 2027 is

unusually broad. Given the great many headwinds, false starts, and missteps

affecting 2026 earnings power, the opportunity for outsized growth in 2027

should be significant assuming that the gears of the turnaround ultimately

engage at some point this year.

Valuation

Our $25 target price is based on an 12.5x P/E multiple on our 2027E estimate.

This compares to the 13.3x historical multiple (2012-2019) and the pre-

pandemic (12/31/19) multiple of 10.6x. This equates to an ~9.5x EV/EBITDA

multiple on our 2027E estimate, which compares to the historical median

multiple of 10.8x and the pre-pandemic multiple of 8.9x.

Risks

Downside risks that could prevent the shares from reaching our target price

include:

• Geopolitical risk/global conflict.

• A new wave of Covid (which could be resistant to current vaccines) which

could cause a new spike in infections and reverse the recent positive

sentiment.

• Further Covid travel restrictions, caused by rising infections or new variants,

which may limit the range of available cruises and limit consumer appetite.