Semiconductor packaging industry update

Research evidence excerpt

Semiconductor packaging industry update

Global Markets Research

Semiconductor packaging industry update 28 July 2026

EQUITY: JAPAN ELECTRONIC PARTS

Research Analysts

We revise assumptions for accelerator roadmaps Japan electronic parts

Manabu Akizuki - NSC

We assume ongoing 2-die GPU configuration, look to earlier EMIB-T manabu.akizuki@nomura.com

shipments for 4-die custom ASIC configurations +81 3 6703 1185

Apr–Jun industry developments: Start of shipments for Rubin processors

We think shipments of packages for Nvidia's Rubin GPUs got under way in 27/3 Q1. We

expect full-scale mass production in Q2. Using macroeconomic statistics, we estimate

monthly shipment value of ¥24.7bn in Jan–Mar and ¥25.8bn in Apr–May (¥28.1bn in

May). The price per m² increased from ¥1.18mn in Jan–Mar to ¥12.9bn in Apr–May

(¥13.6bn in May; Figure 1).

We revise accelerator roadmap assumptions: 2-die configuration for GPUs, earlier

shipments of EMIB-T

There is a growing view in the packaging industry that the structure of the Rubin Ultra will

be changed from four dies, which was announced at GTC in March, to two (see our 30

June 2026 Quick Note SemiAnalysisreportonRubinUltra), and some observers are

starting to take the view that the Feynman will have a two-module structure with two dies

in a 3D stacking configuration. It may have become technically difficult to combine

interposers larger than the 5.5x reticle size with HBM4, which has a lot of wiring. We have

revised our forecasts for Ibiden [4062] (Buy), with a downward revision for our 28/3

forecast for GPU package prices on the assumption that Rubin Ultra will use a 2-die

configuration, contrasted with our new view that shipments of packages for EMIB-T will

begin in 28/3, one year earlier than we previously thought.