Agency MBS Special Topics

Research evidence excerpt

Agency MBS Special Topics

Global Markets Research

7 August 2026

Securitized Products - North America

Research Analysts

July prepayment commentary

US Securitized Products

Aggregate prepays for 30yr conventionals decreased by 3% in July, driven by negative

housing seasonals, partly offset by one additional day count. Aggregate prepays for G2

Multis decreased by 5%, peak prepays were lower for VA 5.5s but remain unchanged for

other higher coupons. Post-peak prepays were also mostly unchanged in G2 5.0-7.0s.

In August, we expect aggregate prepays to decline further due to a back up in driving

mortgage rates (10-15bp higher), negative housing seasonals (-3%) and a lower day

count.

Net issuance reached $96bn (+$12bn YoY): Monthly gross/net issuance decreased to

$112bn/$16bn in July from $119bn/$19bn in June. Ginnie net issuance totaled $20bn and

conventional net issuance totaled -$4bn in July. Ginnie continues to drive net issuance in

2026 YTD, totaling $104bn vs -$7bn for conventionals. Hybrid ARM issuance increased to

$5.5bn in July from $4.2bn in June.

Fig. 1: Prepay changes across products

Shreya Pal - NSI

+ 1 212 667 2183

Vivek Chauhan - NSI

+ 1 212 667 2290

Daivaksh Patel - NSI

Fig. 2: Month-over-month change in prepays by coupon

Factor months

Fannie 30yr

Freddie 30yr

Fannie 15yr

Freddie 15yr

GN II Multis 30yr

GN II Custom 30yr

Rohit Sinha - NSI

Jul-26

Aug-26

M-o-M

change

8.3

8.6

8.9

9.2

10.6

11.6

8.0

8.3

8.7

9.2

10.0

10.9

-3%

-2%

0%

-5%

-6%

Source: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, eMBS, Nomura

Source: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, eMBS, Nomura

Conventional higher coupon prepays declined in July

• In July, prepays declined by 14% for 5.25-7.75% GWAC loans. However, prepays

increased by 20% for 7.75-8.25% GWAC loans.

• Prepays for the Nationstar transferred cohort were slower than Rocket across 5.5s6.0s, but have converged for 6.5s at an aggregate level.

• Prepays increased by 12-19% month over month for UWM 5.5-6.5s