Hermes International: All eyes on the growth algo

Research evidence excerpt

Hermes International: All eyes on the growth algo

Chiara Battistini AC Europe Equity Research

(39-02) 8895-2700 29 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

chiara.x.battistini@jpmorgan.com

• Leather goods growth and capacity: Management pushed back on calls to restrict

leather volumes for exclusivity, arguing demand remains well above supply and that

virtually all production is sold. Hermes reiterated plans to add capacity steadily at one

new leather workshop per year through 2030, with openings slated for 2027/2028/2030

and planning already underway for post‑2030 capacity, noting that the pace is constrained

by recruiting and training artisans, maintaining quality standards, and access to

high‑quality leather. They also stressed that the c.6% leather “volume” target is primarily

a function of artisan working hours, meaning reported growth is driven by mix (bag size/

model, leather type/exotics), productivity and geographic pricing effects rather than a

simple “6% + price” formula. They also highlighted the broad-based desirability beyond

quota bags, flexibility from training artisans by craft (not models), and ongoing

opportunities in the men’s category.

• Margins and H2 considerations: Management said H1 margins were helped by a

positive translation effect that partially offset c.€100m of hedging losses, but at current

FX rates this translation tailwind should fade to roughly neutral for the full year while

hedging losses are expected to increase to c.€210m, implying a bigger FX headwind in

H2. They acknowledged that, all else equal, the absence of H1’s translation benefit could

lead to a c.30bps gross-margin headwind in H2. They also flagged higher H2 spend from

stepped-up capex (expected to reach c.€1bn for the year), more communication/brand