Thoughts on Intel Capex: Semiconductor Capital Equipment | North America

Research evidence excerpt

Thoughts on Intel Capex: Semiconductor Capital Equipment | North America

IdeaMValuation Methodology and Risks

Lasertec (6920.T)

P/E is set in line with front-end equipment peers under our coverage.

Risks to Upside

n Strong uptake of the new product

n Rising demand for EUV mask inspection systems driven by robust investment in leading-

edge semiconductors.

n Higher ASPs and replacement demand driven by the transition to HNA systems.

Risks to Downside

n Suspension of advanced semiconductor development by major semiconductor manu-

facturers and increased competition from new market entrants

n Weak performance of the new product launch

Tokyo Electron (8035.T)

Our target P/E uses the average one-year forward weekly multiple (just under 30x) since

October 2025, when the current SPE upcycle began, through to the present.

n Intel & TeraFab capex materializes sooner than expected

n Expansion in applications of NAND for AI inference, and resulting acceleration in green-

field investments.

n Earlier-than-expected ramp in mass production adoption of cryo etchers.

n Export controls to China tighten

n Coater/developer market shrinks due to adoption of dry resist technology

n Tech innovation greatly reduces memory usage in AI inference

Intel Corporation (INTC.O)

~42x EPS CY2027 EPS of $1.77, 42x is above the high end of the large cap logic semi peer

group, reflecting high leverage potential on numbers that are still depressed, and foundry

optionality, despite our longer term skepticism

n Foundry partnerships de-risk the story and further improve the multiple

n The company regains lost share in desktop and server following CPU shortages

n AMD competition increasingly becomes more significant, which could lead to further

share losses in processors and pressure on ASPs