Raising our memory WFE forecasts (mainly DRAM): Semiconductor Capital Equipment | Global

Research evidence excerpt

Raising our memory WFE forecasts (mainly DRAM): Semiconductor Capital Equipment | Global

Update

June 22, 2026 04:11 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMSemiconductor Capital Equipment | Global Shane Brett

Equity Analyst

Raising our memory WFE Shane.Brett@morganstanley.comJoseph Moore +1 212 761-1022

Joseph.Moore@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-7516

forecasts (mainly DRAM) Mason Wayne

Research Associate

Mason.Wayne@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6012

We are raising our DRAM WFE and bit supply forecasts, while Ella Tulchinsky

fine-tuning our NAND WFE forecast, with NAND bit supply ResearchElla.Tulchinsky@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-2222

moving higher on yield improvement. Nicole Kozhukhov

Nicole.Kozhukhov@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1636

Key Takeaways

Semiconductor Capital Equipment

DRAM: 2026/27 WFE of $48.6bn/$62.5bn, bit supply of 29%/33% North America

Industry View In-Line

NAND: 2026/27 WFE of $15.7bn/$24.1bn, bit supply of 24%/31%

We are not revising our company models or logic WFE estimates, but given our

checks around DRAM tool purchases being pulled forward, and our view that MU’s

FY26/27 capex guide may be revised higher, we are updating our DRAM and NAND

WFE/supply models.

DRAM – WFE and bits revised higher. We raise our 2026/2027 DRAM WFE

estimates from $44.6bn/$57.1bn to $48.6bn/$62.5bn. Our greenfield addition

forecast is revised from 258kwpm/395kwpm to 268kwpm/395kwpm, and our bit

supply growth forecast increases from 26%/32% to 29%/33%. Our 2026/2027

revisions are primarily driven by brownfield, where we now assume more upgrades

across both years. We continue to believe DRAM WFE revisions are skewed to the

upside, with customers doing everything in their power to pull forward spending.

NAND – Fine-tune WFE, revise bits higher.