Weekly: Earnings Week 1 (TXN, INTC, AMD event)

Research evidence excerpt

Weekly: Earnings Week 1 (TXN, INTC, AMD event)

Idea

July 20, 2026 12:23 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMSemiconductors | North America Joseph Moore

Equity Analyst

Weekly: Earnings Week 1 (TXN, Joseph.Moore@morganstanley.comNicole Kozhukhov +1 212 761-7516

Research Associate

Nicole.Kozhukhov@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1636

INTC, AMD event) Ella Tulchinsky

Ella.Tulchinsky@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2222

What’s Changed Mason Wayne

Intel Corporation (INTC.O) From To Mason.Wayne@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6012

Price Target $73.00 $75.00 Shane Brett

Texas Instruments (TXN.O) Shane.Brett@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1022

Price Target $221.00 $230.00

We expect strong earnings across the board, and TXN and INTC Semiconductors

North America

will kick us off this week with good #s against what should be Industry View Attractive

very high expectations, though we see better risk reward

elsewhere.

TXN (UW, reporting after the market close on Wednesday, July 22nd): We expect

a strong JunQ print, consistent with our 2Q26 Disti survey results. We raised our

JunQ/SepQ revenue growth estimates by 70bps/190bps to 9.1%/8.4% q/q,

respectively, above normal seasonality of ~3%/~7%, and lifted our PT to $230 from

$221. With the bar higher than last quarter, we think the stock reaction will depend

more on the SepQ guide and whether firmer pricing and stronger demand are

beginning to translate into better utilization, GM% and FCF.

1) SepQ guide and breadth of demand. Our Disti Survey points to healthy Analog/

MCU expectations, continued Industrial strength and selective tightness across data

center/power. Our SepQ estimate assumes 8.4% q/q growth, modestly above

normal ~7% seasonality. The key question is whether strength continues to broaden