Semiconductor Inventory Tracker: Not Restocking Yet

Research evidence excerpt

Semiconductor Inventory Tracker: Not Restocking Yet

Update

July 1, 2026 04:14 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMSemiconductors | North America Joseph Moore

Equity Analyst

Semiconductor Inventory Joseph.Moore@morganstanley.comNicole Kozhukhov +1 212 761-7516

Research Associate

Nicole.Kozhukhov@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1636

Tracker: Not Restocking Yet Ella Tulchinsky

Ella.Tulchinsky@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2222

Supply chain inventory rose q/q but outperformed seasonality, Shane Brett

with below-seasonal producer builds and distributor declines. EquityShane.Brett@morganstanley.comAnalyst +1 212 761-1022

Supply is tightening, but meaningful restocking has yet to Mason Wayne

emerge. ResearchMason.Wayne@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-6012

Semiconductors

Key Takeaways North America

Industry View Attractive

Overall supply chain outperformed seasonality, increasing by less than the typical

Semiconductor Capital Equipment

1Q increase. North America

Industry View In-Line

Producer and disti DOIs outperformed seasonality; customers were ~in-line.

Auto OEM DOI moved above historical median, while Auto Supplier DOI declined

to in-line with historical levels.

Overall supply chain inventory increased q/q in 1Q, but the build was below

typical 1Q seasonality. We remain above historical median levels, as distributors

declined and producers built less than seasonal levels, while customers were ~in-

line. While this is a step in the right direction, we still remain 33 days above

historical median for the supply chain, and have not yet seen a broader restocking

cycle.

The quarter reflected a mix of normal 1Q inventory build and continued

discipline across the supply chain rather than broad restocking. Distributors