Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIOJ.J): 2Q26 prod/export in line vs CitiE; FY26 guidance maintained

Research evidence excerpt

Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIOJ.J): 2Q26 prod/export in line vs CitiE; FY26 guidance maintained

Flash |

23 Jul 2026 03:05:35 ET │ 10 pages

Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIOJ.J)

2Q26 prod/export in line vs CitiE; FY26 guidance maintained

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral Kumba reported -4% y/y decline in iron ore production to 8.8Mt (2Q25:

9.3Mt), in line vs the CitiE/guidance. The decline was driven by -16% lower Price (22 Jul 26 17:00) R252.34

production at Kolomela mine. Similar to production decline, exports also Target price R275.00

declined by -5% y/y to 9.2Mt (2Q25: 9.7Mt) and came in broadly line vs Expected share price return 9.0%

CitiE. The decline is largely driven by first of two planned 10-day railway Expected dividend yield 6.9%

logistics maintenance shutdown in May 2026. Total finished stock Expected total return 15.9%

declined to 7.0Mt vs 7.2Mt at 1Q26 end (7.5Mt at FY25 end) with majority

Market Cap R81,275M of stocks at the mines. Operational guidance remains unchanged, but

US$4,958M company now expects Sishen's unit cost towards the upper end of its

range and Kolomela towards the middle. The company also highlighted

that cost environment remains volatile on the ongoing developments in

the Middle East. Ephrem RaviAC

+44-20-7986-2462

2Q26 production lower y/y in line vs CitiE — Production at Sishen increased ephrem.ravi@citi.com

marginally by 1% y/y to 6.5Mt (2Q25: 6.4Mt); while production at Kolomela declined Shashi Shekhar, CFA

by -16% y/y to 2.4Mt (2Q25: 2.8Mt) due to plant maintenance in 2Q26, which

+91-22-4277-5028

coincided with the Transnet logistics maintenance shutdown.

shashi.shekhar@citi.com

FY26 guidance maintained — Iron ore production guidance maintained at 31- Krishan M Agarwal

33Mt; sales guidance at: 35-37Mt; Capex guidance at ZAR 13.2-14.2bn.