Kumba Iron Ore 1H26 results: in line

Research evidence excerpt

Kumba Iron Ore 1H26 results: in line

Update

July 28, 2026 05:46 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+MKumba Iron Ore | Europe Brian Morgan

Equity Analyst

1H26 results: in line Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.comChristopher Nicholson +27 11 587-0803

Equity Strategist and Analyst

Christopher.Nicholson@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0816

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Kumba Iron Ore (KIOJ.J, KIO SJ)

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged

EEMEA - Metals & Mining | South Africa

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Stock Rating Equal-weight

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Industry View In-Line

Price target ZAc 28,000

Shr price, close (Jul 24, 2026) ZAc 26,143

Key Takeaways 52-WeekMkt cap, currRange(mn) ZAc 39,531-ZAR 84,45624,751

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* ZAR (8,489)

FCF ahead of MSe on lower capex (timing) which drives a beat on DPS EV, curr (mn)* ZAR 86,517

UHDMS project largely on track * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Well guided result with EPS and EBITDA in guidance ranges. Kumba has declared

a dividend of R7.50/s, above MSe and below consensus. FCF beat our estimates with

capex coming in about R1b below (FCF drives our DPS calculation).

Sishen unit costs came in above MSe, explaining the miss in EBITDA against our

estimates, together with lower price realisations.

Some minor timing and capex shifts for the UHDMS project, but largely tracking

as planned. The main changes to the UHDMS project relate to capex phasing and a

modest schedule delay, rather than any change to the overall project scope or total

capital cost. Kumba stated that the 2026 expansion capex requirement for UHDMS

has increased to R3.0–R3.2 billion, reflecting the introduction of an additional work