1H26 Kumba results read-across to Anglo American

Research evidence excerpt

1H26 Kumba results read-across to Anglo American

Update

July 28, 2026 06:26 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MAnglo American Plc | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

1H26 Kumba results read-across Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+ +44 20 7425-8959

Brian Morgan

Equity Analystto Anglo American Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

Kumba Iron Ore (69.7% owned by Anglo American, covered by Brian Morgan – Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

see his comment here) reported its 1H26 financial results. Overall, EBITDA came Equity Analyst

in close to the midpoint of the Kumba Iron Ore tradings statement range at US Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

$664mn. We expect this to translate to ~US$640mn in Anglo American EBITDA Adahna Ekoku

contributions from Kumba, after some adjustments, as compared to our current Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

forecast of US$625mn. Cash generation came in much higher than our implied Ferdinand Huber

forecast, with FCFE at ~US$+150mn vs MSe at ~US$-85mn (100% basis) on Research Associate

Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

account of a combination of a positive NWC movement, lower cash taxes paid, and

lower dividends paid to minorities among other operating cash flow items. Anglo American Plc (AAL.L, AAL LN)

Metals & Mining | United Kingdom

Implications for Anglo American's cash flows via the dividend to minority line item: Stock Rating ++

We calculate a cash dividend to Kumba minorities (at group and asset level) at ~US Industry View In-Line

Price target ++

$185mn (outflow) as compared to our current forecast of US$233mn. Shr price, close (Jul 27, 2026) 3,641p

52-Week Range 4,239-2,042p