Risk Reward Update: BHP Group Ltd | Asia Pacific

Research evidence excerpt

Risk Reward Update: BHP Group Ltd | Asia Pacific

UpdateM

Risk Reward – BHP Group Ltd (BHP.AX)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Jun 2025 Jun 2026e Jun 2027e Jun 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Iron Ore Sales Volumes - attributable 255 254 261 265 16 Jul 2026 4QFY26 Production Report

(mt)

Iron Ore Price (US$/t) 101.2 104.3 92.2 93.5 18 Aug 2026 FY26 Financial Report

Iron Ore Cash Cost (US$/t) 33 37 36 35

Copper Sales Volume -attributable

1,292 1,197 1,128 1,087

(kt)

Copper Price (US$/lb) 4.23 5.34 6.13 5.70

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Commodity prices, currency, and costs RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Jun 2026e

Stronger-than-expected commodity prices or

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE depreciation in the AUD/USD Sales / 58,681

Stronger-than-expected macroeconomic Revenue 55,776 60,161

0-10% Europe ex UK variables, such as China's steel consumption (US$, mn) 57,621

0-10% India ahead of our base-case forecasts

0-10% Japan

0-10% Latin America RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 33,407

EBITDA 0-10% North America Project execution, especially for Escondida, 30,390 35,270

(US$, mn)

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Olympic Dam, and Jansen potash 32,277 10-20% China and India Operating challenges in the iron ore business,

60-70% Mainland China which could affect volumes and/or cost

2.61

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate performance EPS 2.22 2.77

View explanation of regional hierarchies here (US$)

2.53

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

MS ALPHA MODELS

Inst. Owners, % Active 45.8%

ROE

17.0 27.9

2/5 3 Month Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research (%)

MOST Horizon 24.2

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is 1.75

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored DPS

1.33 2.65

Quintile (US$)

1.60

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates