Rio Tinto Limited: 2Q26 First Take: Solid overall, working cap build but C1 copper cost guide lowered

Research evidence excerpt

Rio Tinto Limited: 2Q26 First Take: Solid overall, working cap build but C1 copper cost guide lowered

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 July 2026

Rio Tinto Limited Overweight

RIO.AX, RIO AU

2Q26 First Take: Solid overall, working cap build but C1 Price (14 Jul 26):A$163.61

copper cost guide lowered Price Target (Jun-27):A$209.00

Key takeaways: 1) Pilbara shipments/production were a 5%/7% miss to JPMe

(albeit our forecasts were optimistic) and realised price was $1.2/wmt below JPMe

at $85.3/wmt - we expect the market to view iron ore outcomes as broadly in line.

2) Copper was in line vs JPMe and C1 unit cost guidance has been reduced on

higher gold price/productivity improvements. 3) On the cash balance heading

into 1H results, the $443m OT tax payment, and ~$1.2bn H1 working capital

outflow point to higher consensus net debt revisions. Overall, a relatively solid Australia

result, in our view. ME cost pressures appear contained at this stage. RIO is OW

Head of Australia Metals & Mining

rated.

Lyndon Fagan AC

• Key positives. Copper C1 net unit cost guidance was reduced to US30-50c/lb (61-2) 9003-8648

from US65-75c/lb due to higher gold prices and productivity improvements. lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

• Key negatives. Pilbara iron ore shipments of 85.3Mt were a 5% miss vs JPMe Jonathon Sharp

89.8Mt albeit we had expected some sprint capacity to be utilised in the (61 2) 9003-8312

quarter. Realized revenue of $84.1/wmt is below JPMe $85.3/wmt. jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

• Guidance. All volume guidance is unchanged; copper C1 net unit cost Metals & Mining

guidance was reduced on higher gold prices and productivity improvements.

Diesel is a flagged headwind (~US$0.8/t YoY impact in H1; ~US$0.15/t for Devwrat Vegad