Vallourec: Cautious message + solid industry data points + 19% share price decline = attractive entry point ahead of 2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

Vallourec: Cautious message + solid industry data points + 19% share price decline = attractive entry point ahead of 2Q26

6 July 2026

Guillaume Delaby

+33 1 42 13 62 29

Global Oil Services guillaume.delaby@bernsteinsg.com

Vallourec SA Specialist Sales

Gareth Williams

Rating +44 20 7762 5256

Outperform gareth.b.williams@bernsteinsg.com

Price Target

VK.FP 28.00 EUR

Vallourec: Cautious message + solid industry data points + 19%

share price decline = attractive entry point ahead of 2Q26

We regularly hold calls with companies towards the end of each quarter to remain up-to-date

Close Date 3 Jul 2026

with their latest communications ahead of a quiet period. We had a call with Vallourec IR, ahead

VK.FP Close Price (EUR) 20.56

of their 2Q results on 30 July.

Price Target (EUR) 28.00

Company message. The company’s tone ahead of 2Q26 (30 July) and regarding 3Q26 Upside/(Downside) 36%

was more cautious than we expected, and certainly more cautious than it was at our Nice 52-Week Range 27.67/14.76

conference. 1) 2Q26. Regarding 2Q26, the company reiterates an EBITDA of $175-205m EDME 1,622.79

(Bernstein estimate: $206m) with “volumes and EBITDA per tonne to decrease sequentially”. FYE Dec

2) 3Q26. We understand that the anticipated ramp-up in 2H26 may be now be more weighted Div Yield 8.5%

to 4Q26, implying a potentially softer 3Q26 than initially expected. 3) Share buybacks. Market Cap (EUR) (M) 4,908

Interestingly, and for the first time since 30 March 2026, the company resumed buybacks in the EV (EUR) (M) 4,953

week of 26 June (291,630 shares bought at €20.607). According to our calculations, from the Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

planned €200m SBB which ended on 30 June, the company bought back 5,269m shares for Absolute (%) 31.0 (15.9) 28.5 25.9