Carlsberg: Asian JV with Sapporo implies another slice off leverage & brings a resumption of buybacks closer

Research evidence excerpt

Carlsberg: Asian JV with Sapporo implies another slice off leverage & brings a resumption of buybacks closer

6 July 2026

Trevor Stirling

+44 20 7676 7521

European Beverages trevor.stirling@bernsteinsg.com

Nadine Sarwat, CFACarlsberg A/S

+44 20 7676 6849

Rating nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Asavari Paluskar, CFA, CA (India)

+44 20 7676 7291

Price Target asavari.paluskar@bernsteinsg.com

CARLB.DC 1,470.00 DKK Specialist Sales

Alix Turner

+44 20 7762 4044

alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com

Carlsberg: Asian JV with Sapporo implies another slice off

leverage & brings a resumption of buybacks closer

This morning, Carlsberg reported entering an agreement with Sapporo to form a JV in Asia.

Close Date 3 Jul 2026

This will include six Tier 2 Asian markets for Carlsberg (Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia,

CARLB.DC Close Price (DKK) 916.80

Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia). Importantly, it excludes the two biggest markets in Asia (China

Price Target (DKK) 1,470.00

& India) as well as Nepal. It also currently excludes Sapporo's brewery in Vietnam, though

Upside/(Downside) 60%

we expect this will ultimately be folded into the partnership. Finally, Carlsberg will also get a

52-Week Range 1,015.00/737.40

long-term license to produce & sell the Sapporo brand in the UK and Myanmar. A pretty good

EDME 1,622.79

deal all round.

FYE Dec

Carlsberg will retain ownership and operational control of the JV with a 75% stake. Sapporo Div Yield 3.1%

will be paying $643m for a 25% stake, an implicit 17.0x 2025 EV/EBITDA. We also note that Market Cap (DKK) (M) 131,258

from an accounting lens, 100% of the cash will flow to reducing net debt, but there will be no EV (DKK) (M) 195,168

reduction in consolidated EBITDA (potentially a small increase from the incremental sales of Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M