Carlsberg: Key themes ahead of 2Q26 results - bad weather in China could pull down Asia & Group volumes

Research evidence excerpt

Carlsberg: Key themes ahead of 2Q26 results - bad weather in China could pull down Asia & Group volumes

30 June 2026

Trevor Stirling

+44 20 7676 7521

European Beverages trevor.stirling@bernsteinsg.com

Carlsberg A/S Nadine Sarwat, CFA

+44 20 7676 6849

Rating nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Asavari Paluskar, CFA, CA (India)

Price Target +44 20 7676 7291

asavari.paluskar@bernsteinsg.com

CARLB.DC 1,470.00 DKK Specialist Sales

Alix Turner

+44 20 7762 4044

alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com

Carlsberg: Key themes ahead of 2Q26 results - bad weather in

China could pull down Asia & Group volumes

We regularly hold calls with companies, making sure we are up-to-date with their latest

Close Date 29 Jun 2026

communications. Ahead of the Carlsberg results release, due on the 19th August, we update on CARLB.DC Close Price (DKK) 874.40

key themes and our thesis below. Price Target (DKK) 1,470.00

Upside/(Downside) 68%

At the Group level, we expect to see sequentially lower volume growth in 2Q facing tough 52-Week Range 1,015.00/737.40

Easter comps in Europe and poor weather in some countries, especially China. Group price-

EDME 1,582.25

mix is likely to be better sequentially. EBIT growth is likely to be slightly skewed, with 1H a bit

FYE Dec

lower than 2H. At a regional level:

Div Yield 3.3%

In Western Europe, Easter tailwinds from 1Q will likely turn into headwinds in 2Q. Poland likely Market Cap (DKK) (M) 122,250

to still be weak with heavy promotions from Asahi. The UK and Nordics face a tough comp EV (DKK) (M) 186,160

in 1Q from good weather last year (too early to say if late June heatwave is net +ve or -ve). Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

Overall for the region, 2Q volumes are likely to be slightly -ve (cons +0.3%), with growth in soft Absolute (%) 4.7 1.5 5.0 (1.7)