Daily Economic Briefing: The remarkably resilient US consumer

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: The remarkably resilient US consumer

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

06 July 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

The remarkably resilient US consumer

Economic and Policy Research

Maia Crook

(1-212) 622-8435

maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

• Globally, a modest disappointment in last week’s June manufacturing PMI was Nora(44-20)Szentivanyi7134-7544

followed by today’s report of a lifting services PMI. The composite PMI report nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

inched higher to 52.0 and is consistent with an above-trend 2.7%ar GDP gain. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Our 2Q-3Q forecast is for 2.3%ar growth. Underlying details started to unwind Alex Gallin

conflict-induced drags — sentiment and employment indexes improved, and (1-212) 270-5492

the pricing PMIs pulled back. alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

• Our global capex nowcaster is tracking a 9.8%ar rise in 2Q capex after the Joseph Lupton

11.3%ar in observed 1Q investment. The 1Q surge was made all the more

(1-212) 834-5735

encouraging by the broad-based gains across countries, with EM Asia in joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

particular posting sharp increases amidst the tech capex build-out. Early 2Q26 JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

data from Vietnam showed investment surging a record 15%oya, pushing GDP

growth to a post-pandemic high of 15%ar.

• Incoming June reports have tempered our perception of upside momentum in

the US economy with lower-than-expected June job gains and a sharp

widening in the May advance trade deficit. But demand momentum remains

solid in both business and consumer spending indicators.

• The consumer appeared most vulnerable to a softening as we move through

2Q26. But a strong May real PCE gain has been followed by Chase Card data

tracking a 0.5% rise in total PCE last month.