CoTD: Return of US Independence

Research evidence excerpt

CoTD: Return of US Independence

Idea

July 6, 2026 11:46 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMulti-Industry | North America Christopher Snyder, CFA

Equity Analyst

CoTD: Return of US Chris.Snyder@morganstanley.comBrandon Knutson +1 212 761-4470

Brandon.Knutson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4168

Independence Toby Okwara

Toby.Okwara@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1693

Chart of the Day (CoTD) highlights charts that tie into latest Christine Yao

investor conversations, are timely for the macro + company ResearchChristine.Yao@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-4193

events, or just ones that we find interesting.

Multi-Industry

Exhibit 1: Since 2025 Liberation Day, US Industrial Machinery orders have North America

Industry View Attractive

inflected ~50% after decades of decline. Conversely, China Mfg Fixed Investment

has turned negative for the first time this decade. We believe this is a direct

reflection of changing supply chain costs following 2025 Liberation Day -

positioning US Industrials for a return to growth and leaving Int'l markets over

capacitized

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, US Census Bureau, China Nat'l Bureau Statistics

The Bullish call we made on US Industrials back in our Sept 2024 launch (GDP + 3)

was underpinned by a view that the US is positioned to take share of global capex, a

reversal after 25yrs of share loss and positioning our multi-industry coverage to

grow profits at an accelerated rate vs history (Stronger & More Durable). What

remains both the most attractive & under-appreciated aspect of our $10T US

Reshoring thesis (Deep Dive) is that the opportunity is not demand dependant but

instead is driven by relocation on shifting supply chain costs … and if companies are