CoTD: Screening Leading Edge Orders to Find 2H Momentum

Research evidence excerpt

CoTD: Screening Leading Edge Orders to Find 2H Momentum

Idea

July 17, 2026 11:44 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMulti-Industry | North America Christopher Snyder, CFA

Equity Analyst

CoTD: Screening Leading Edge Chris.Snyder@morganstanley.comBrandon Knutson +1 212 761-4470

Brandon.Knutson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4168

Orders to Find 2H Momentum Toby Okwara

Toby.Okwara@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1693

Chart of the Day (CoTD) highlights charts that tie into latest Christine Yao

investor conversations, are timely for the macro + company ResearchChristine.Yao@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-4193

events, or just ones that we find interesting.

Multi-Industry

Exhibit 1: Where are US Mfg orders accelerating in Q2 ? Chart below plots North America

Industry View Attractive

sequential change in Q2 vs Q1 order rates across US Industrial verticals. With our

multi-industry coverage positioned for broad Q2 upside, we think equities will

trade on 2H revisions and lead edge order rates is a top way to gauge momentum

into the back half

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, US Census Bureau

We continue to call for broad Q2 beats with Corps providing conservative quarterly

guides into improving macro data (Preview) – but with US Industrials trading at

near record high valuations, we believe the equities need positive revisions to

drive further upside and thus view 2H guides as the KPI this EPS season. While a

rising cyclical tide + potential channel build will lift all US Industrial equities above

Q2 guidance, the bar gets tougher into 2H, and we see bifurcating volumes on

channel dynamics (Need Revisions) – best positioned are those where the market

will exit Q2 EPS more confident on sustained strength into 2027 (+ve ROK, RAL,

ETN, AME, TT, HUBB & PH).