CoTD: Much to Learn From Leading Edge Imports

Research evidence excerpt

CoTD: Much to Learn From Leading Edge Imports

Idea

July 24, 2026 11:52 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMulti-Industry | North America Christopher Snyder, CFA

Equity Analyst

CoTD: Much to Learn From Chris.Snyder@morganstanley.comBrandon Knutson +1 212 761-4470

Brandon.Knutson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4168

Leading Edge Imports Toby Okwara

Toby.Okwara@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1693

Chart of the Day (CoTD) highlights charts that tie into latest Christine Yao

investor conversations, are timely for the macro + company ResearchChristine.Yao@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-4193

events, or just ones that we find interesting.

Multi-Industry

Exhibit 1: The chart below screens for competitive risk by plotting the change in North America

Industry View Attractive

Mexico share of US imports by category (2026 YTD vs 2025 avg, bps) - Changes

to US tariff policy in 2026 have unwound a portion of the competitive advantage

that was provided to Mexico vs Asian on 2025 Liberation Day, signaling a pickup in

competitive pressure for our US multi-industry coverage whom is overweight

Mexico production vs Int'l competitors

Source: Morgan Stanley, US Census Bureau

As published back in February post IEEPA tariff rollback (link), we expected the

policy change to drive channel pull forward as companies had a seemingly transitory

window to land products into the US for cheaper… but this same dynamic also

signals a pickup in competition for North American producers. Our US multi-

industry coverage is overweight Mexico production relative to Int'l competitors

whom are more indexed to Asia production so tariff policy that favors Mexico over

Asia imports is a competitive advantage for US Industrials (ie Liberation Day) … but Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with