Week Ahead Preview: Not All Short-Cycle Created Equal

Research evidence excerpt

Week Ahead Preview: Not All Short-Cycle Created Equal

Idea

August 3, 2026 10:16 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMulti-Industry | North America Christopher Snyder, CFA

Equity Analyst

Week Ahead Preview: Not All Chris.Snyder@morganstanley.comBrandon Knutson +1 212 761-4470

Brandon.Knutson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4168

Short-Cycle Created Equal Toby Okwara

Toby.Okwara@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1693

Q2 EPS has matched the core pillars of our preview; our US Christine Yao

multi-industry is delivering broad Q2 upside against a ResearchChristine.Yao@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-4193

conservative bar, but beats are anticipated, and the equities are

Multi-Industry

trading on 2H revisions. North America

Industry View Attractive

Exhibit 1: While we do believe some areas of the US short-cycle economy could

see the positive rate of change moderate into Q3, we do not think US Factory

Automation is one of them. We see multi-decade tailwinds on the back of our US

Reshoring thesis – a positive for ROK into both FQ3 EPS and beyond. While ROK

modeled for sharp deceleration in the coming Qs, leading indicators remain

positive

Source: Company reports, Morgan Stanley Research

With the bulk of our US multi-industry through Q2 EPS, results have tracked in line

with the mechanics laid out in our preview (Following 2H Volumes into 2027) –

companies are delivering broad Q2 upside vs conservative guides, but this is

expected w/ the equities trading on 2H revisions (Equities Need Revisions). The

market has penalized those where Q2 strength was a function of pull forward at the

expense of 2H (Resi HVAC , 2H Volume Risk) while favoring those that are showing

positive rate change and improved prospects into 2027 (ETN, Under-Appreciated

Transformation).