Patterson-UTI Energy: 2Q26 Preview: Largely Derisked with Eyes on 3Q Pricing Inflection

Research evidence excerpt

Patterson-UTI Energy: 2Q26 Preview: Largely Derisked with Eyes on 3Q Pricing Inflection

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

06 July 2026

Patterson-UTI Energy Underweight

PTEN, PTEN US

2Q26 Preview: Largely Derisked with Eyes on 3Q Price (02 Jul 26):$8.66

Pricing Inflection Price Target (Dec-26):$10.00

JPM View: PTEN’s 2Q26 print should largely confirm the U.S. shale activity Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

ACinflection thesis, with the preannounced EBITDA of ~$220mm (vs. prior JPMe/ Arun Jayaram

STe of $208/$206mm) already de-risking the quarter. Our recent catch-up with (1-212) 622-8541

CEO Andy Hendricks and VP of IR Mike Sabella was largely consistent with the arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

May 2026 investor presentation, though we note the rig count has already moved Jason Kim

to 96 (+1 above the preannounced 95 exit rate), with the company on-track for ~98 (1-212) 622-1408

rigs by mid-July and 100+ by YE26. In drilling, MSD dayrate increases are being jason.b.kim@jpmchase.com

implemented with minimal cost inflation outside of the $5-10mm of reactivation Sowmya Vemulapalli

costs already embedded in 2Q, which should set up favorable incrementals in 3Q (1-212) 270-4660

sowmya.vemulapalli@jpmchase.com

as those costs roll off and pricing layers in. In completions, the fleet is sold out with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

no white space in 3Q26 and pricing increases taking effect July 1, which we believe

will drive adjusted gross profit from ~$120mm in 2Q26 to the $130-135mm range

in 3Q26 at high incrementals. Key Changes (FYE Dec)

Prev Cur Δ

For 2Q26, we model $220mm, in-line with STe $220mm and above prior JPMe/ Adj. EPS - 26E ($) (0.11) 0.01 105.2%

STe of $208/$206mm prior to the May 26 preannouncement. For 3Q26, we model Adj. EPS - 27E ($) 0.15 0.40 157.3%