Spot Base Consensus: 3 July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Spot Base Consensus: 3 July 2026

Idea

July 3, 2026 04:51 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Spot Base Consensus: 3 July R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Our weekly report compares spot-based valuation, cash flow,

and earnings metrics to current consensus and our base-case

values for all stocks under our coverage. Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

We compile the "Spot Base Consensus" report on a weekly basis to display spot Industry View Attractive

price scenario outcomes. All other assumptions from our base case models are

Recent Research:

unchanged. This provides context for current equity and commodity prices. The

Australia Materials: Takeaways from Discussion

charts and tables below display the scenario outcomes.

on Advances in Rare Earth Permanent Magnets

Methodology: We run spot commodity and currency prices through our models up (2 Jul 2026)

to CY32, then switch to our longer-term base case price assumptions detailed here – South32 Ltd: Better Quality and Simpler

metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 2Q26: Two-Way Risks (8 Apr 2026). Portfolio to Improve Investor Appetite for S32 (1

Jul 2026)

Exhibit 1: Spot vs. base case vs. consensus EBITDA forecasts

South32 Ltd: Sale of aluminium portfolio

50% creates a premier base metals business with

40% majority assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions. (1 Jul 2026)

Rio Tinto Plc: Oyu Tolgoi shareholder loan

30%

agreement (30 Jun 2026)

20% Iluka Resources Ltd: Commercial offtake

10% validates industry and ILU's project, unlocks

0% funding (23 Jun 2026)

Australia Materials: Takeaways from Rare Earth

-10%

Permanent Magnet Industry Discussion (23 Jun

-20% 2026)

-30%