REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
JPM | US Energy: WTI Contango, Oman Dubai Discount Largest Since ‘20, Ship Crossings Rise to Week’s High, UAE Exports +30% MoM, Iran Oil on Water +18% WoW, Russia Casualties Now 1% of Population, Copper 232, Subsitution, AA South32
Research evidence excerpt
JPM | US Energy: WTI Contango, Oman Dubai Discount Largest Since ‘20, Ship Crossings Rise to Week’s High, UAE Exports +30% MoM, Iran Oil on Water +18% WoW, Russia Casualties Now 1% of Population, Copper 232, Subsitution, AA South32
Brendan Henrici - Specialist Sales - US Energy AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nbrendan.henrici@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 02 July 2026
Iran Struggles to Sell Crude, Russian Attacks Escalate: Alternatively (& on the oil positive side of the ledger) Bloomberg is
reporting that more than 20 million barrels of Iranian crude have been idling in Asian waters for at least seven days, up nearly
18% from a week earlier. The issue with the Iranian barrels is 2-fold: 1) EU and UK restrictions on Iranian oil (that remain in
place) complicate insurance and 2) the dark fleets that the Iranian crude is transiting on may mean that ports are hesitant to accept
it. Either way, the conclusion here is that less Iranian crude is hitting the demand centers than is probably assumed in the oil price
(since the sanctions have been removed). Although you wouldn’t know it when looking at prices! Elsewhere, as tensions settle in
Iran, they continue escalate in Ukraine. In what marks the second-deadliest attack thus far this year, 17 people were killed in Kyiv
after Russia launched a major aerial attack on the city. Also helping detail just how much the attacks have escalated on both
sides, Russia’s defense ministry indicated that Ukraine may have used a long-range ballistic missile in combat for the first time.
The research by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) now estimatesRussia has suffered 1.4 million
casualties, including killed, wounded and missing soldiers – a stunning number that amounts to roughly 1% of the
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