JPM | US Energy: WTI Contango, Oman Dubai Discount Largest Since ‘20, Ship Crossings Rise to Week’s High, UAE Exports +30% MoM, Iran Oil on Water +18% WoW, Russia Casualties Now 1% of Population, Copper 232, Subsitution, AA South32

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | US Energy: WTI Contango, Oman Dubai Discount Largest Since ‘20, Ship Crossings Rise to Week’s High, UAE Exports +30% MoM, Iran Oil on Water +18% WoW, Russia Casualties Now 1% of Population, Copper 232, Subsitution, AA South32

Brendan Henrici - Specialist Sales - US Energy AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nbrendan.henrici@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 02 July 2026

Iran Struggles to Sell Crude, Russian Attacks Escalate: Alternatively (& on the oil positive side of the ledger) Bloomberg is

reporting that more than 20 million barrels of Iranian crude have been idling in Asian waters for at least seven days, up nearly

18% from a week earlier. The issue with the Iranian barrels is 2-fold: 1) EU and UK restrictions on Iranian oil (that remain in

place) complicate insurance and 2) the dark fleets that the Iranian crude is transiting on may mean that ports are hesitant to accept

it. Either way, the conclusion here is that less Iranian crude is hitting the demand centers than is probably assumed in the oil price

(since the sanctions have been removed). Although you wouldn’t know it when looking at prices! Elsewhere, as tensions settle in

Iran, they continue escalate in Ukraine. In what marks the second-deadliest attack thus far this year, 17 people were killed in Kyiv

after Russia launched a major aerial attack on the city. Also helping detail just how much the attacks have escalated on both

sides, Russia’s defense ministry indicated that Ukraine may have used a long-range ballistic missile in combat for the first time.

The research by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) now estimatesRussia has suffered 1.4 million

casualties, including killed, wounded and missing soldiers – a stunning number that amounts to roughly 1% of the