AUSTRALIA FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

AUSTRALIA FIRST TO MARKET

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Australia First to Market 02 July 2026

Top Stories

Antipodean Insights (Jason Steed)

Bound in shallows

The tide goes out - "There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune: Omitted, all the voyage

of their life is bound in shallows and miseries" (The Tragedy of Julius Caesar). In a year defined by the AI hardware super-

cycle, the ASX 200 mustered a paltry 2.8%, marking Australia's second-worst FY performance relative to the MSCI World

(+22.4%) since 1996. The offshore contrast was stark: the NASDAQ climbed 29%, the S&P 500 21%, and the Nikkei by an

extraordinary 73%. Nor was this a narrow, mega cap affair, with the Russell 2000 (+39%) and MSCI EM (+41%) both

outrunning the Mag 7 (+21%), and DM, Europe and global value all generating double-digit gains. Australia's affliction was

structural, rather than cyclical: a 2% index weight in Tech left us a spectator to FY26's defining trade.

Aristocrat Leisure LTD (Don Carducci) (ALL AU, OW)

Content is king

The pathway to US$1bn of interactive revenue in FY29 is now more clear. The composition of the revenue target is critical, and

the building blocks provided at today’s investor day (Content/iLotteries/Platform) appear reasonable. Simply put, ALL’s

presence in iGaming has under-indexed relative to the broader portfolio. The conversion of proven land-based content (i.e.

Lightning Link) into iGaming should drive market share penetration, and underlying US iGaming GGR data ( discussion here)

remains supportive with ~17% growth to 31 May 2026. Execution remains the key focus.

South32 (Lyndon Fagan) (S32 AU, OW)

Selling the Aluminium Division is a positive strategic move, improving the investment proposition;

Retain OW