AUSTRALIA FIRST TO MARKET

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AUSTRALIA FIRST TO MARKET

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Australia First to Market 02 July 2026

Top Stories

Antipodean Insights (Jason Steed)

Bound in shallows

The tide goes out - "There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune: Omitted, all the voyage

of their life is bound in shallows and miseries" (The Tragedy of Julius Caesar). In a year defined by the AI hardware super-

cycle, the ASX 200 mustered a paltry 2.8%, marking Australia's second-worst FY performance relative to the MSCI World

(+22.4%) since 1996. The offshore contrast was stark: the NASDAQ climbed 29%, the S&P 500 21%, and the Nikkei by an

extraordinary 73%. Nor was this a narrow, mega cap affair, with the Russell 2000 (+39%) and MSCI EM (+41%) both

outrunning the Mag 7 (+21%), and DM, Europe and global value all generating double-digit gains. Australia's affliction was

structural, rather than cyclical: a 2% index weight in Tech left us a spectator to FY26's defining trade.

Aristocrat Leisure LTD (Don Carducci) (ALL AU, OW)

Content is king

The pathway to US$1bn of interactive revenue in FY29 is now more clear. The composition of the revenue target is critical, and

the building blocks provided at today’s investor day (Content/iLotteries/Platform) appear reasonable. Simply put, ALL’s

presence in iGaming has under-indexed relative to the broader portfolio. The conversion of proven land-based content (i.e.

Lightning Link) into iGaming should drive market share penetration, and underlying US iGaming GGR data ( discussion here)

remains supportive with ~17% growth to 31 May 2026. Execution remains the key focus.

South32 (Lyndon Fagan) (S32 AU, OW)

Selling the Aluminium Division is a positive strategic move, improving the investment proposition;

Retain OW