Swatch Group: Taking Profit – Downgrade to Market-Perform

Research evidence excerpt

Swatch Group: Taking Profit – Downgrade to Market-Perform

24 June 2026

Luca Solca

+41 582 723 126

Global Luxury Goods luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com

Swatch Group AG/The Eric Chen, CFA

+852 2123 2628

Rating eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com

Market-Perform (Outperform OLD) Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA

Price Target +44 20 7676 6822

yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com

UHR.SW 200.00 CHF (180.00 OLD)

Maria Meita

+44 20 7170 0540

maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com

A seemingly reviving Chinese consumer and the AP collaboration have recently Close Date 23 Jun 2026

supported Swatch Group. The AP x Swatch collaboration appears to be highly successful

UHR.SW Close Price (CHF) 204.30

to date, as evidenced by long queues outside Swatch stores globally and resale prices

Price Target (CHF) 200.00

trading at significant multiples to retail. We estimate the collaboration could contribute more

Upside/(Downside) (2)%

than CHF 100 million to FY26E results. In parallel, total watch exports to the Greater China

52-Week Range 223.10/127.05

region is showing a steady improvement trend on YoY basis, which is supportive for Swatch

EDME 1,576.26

Group given its geographic exposure (c.1/4), although levels remain well below pre-Covid

FYE Dec

levels (c. 1/3).

Div Yield 2.2%

The Swatch Group stock is no longer leading the market as the “deep value” queen Market Cap (CHF) (M) 10,606

(see Global Luxury Goods: Investment Strategies - Part 1: A bottom fishing expedition). The EV (CHF) (M) 9,497

stock currently trades at a -8% discount to its 10-year average on an EV to sales basis, Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

compared to a -26% discount at the beginning of the year, and versus the current sector Absolute (%) 21.2 2.1 20.9 54.9

average discount of -13%. Prada has now assumed the role of the "deep value" queen, EDME (%) 7.2 1.8 7.8 17.7