Global Luxury Goods: May Swiss watch exports - Base effects drive rebound; underlying recovery remains gradual and fragile

Research evidence excerpt

Global Luxury Goods: May Swiss watch exports - Base effects drive rebound; underlying recovery remains gradual and fragile

18 June 2026

Global Luxury Goods

Global Luxury Goods: May Swiss watch exports - Base effects

drive rebound; underlying recovery remains gradual and fragile

Swiss watch exports grew marginally by +0.4% YoY in May 2026. Adjusted for Luca Solca

+41 582 723 126 calendar effects, however, total exports increased by +10.4%, reflecting two fewer working

luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com days in May’26 vs. May’25. The sharp rebound from the -16.6% YoY decline in the prior

month was once again driven by the US; excluding the US, total exports declined -1.2%

Maria Meita YoY, compared to +3.5% YoY in April 2026, primarily due to a higher comparable base in

+44 20 7170 0540

maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Mainland China.

Eric Chen, CFA Fluctuations in the US comp base continued to drive overall export growth volatility.

+852 2123 2628 Exports to the US grew +12.3% YoY in May, as the comp base normalized to -25%,

eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com vs. +149% in Apr’25. On a LTM basis, exports to the US declined -19% YoY, a modest

improvement from -21% in April 2026. Comparable bases for the US are expected to

Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA remain supportive for the remainder of the year, with double-digit negative comparisons, +44 20 7676 6822

yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com except for July, when prior-year pull-forward shipments resulted in a +45% base.

Specialist Sales Underlying trends in Greater China remained broadly stable. Exports to HK (+3.4%

YoY) and Mainland China (-21.4% YoY) moderated sequentially, largely due to tougher

Alix Turner bases. On a LTM basis, exports to Greater China declined -0.9% YoY, continuing the gradual +44 20 7762 4044