REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
The Point for Europe
Research evidence excerpt
The Point for Europe
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Monday, 22 June 2026
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European Economics - France – Will the economy remain ‘underpressurised’? Global Economic Outlook & Strategy -
France’s economy appears ‘underpressurised’ compared to peers, with domestic Global Resilience—Could Growth
demand comparatively lacklustre and inflation pressures lower. We argue that, at Surprise to the Upside (Yet Again)?
the root, a structural improvement in labour market fundamentals has resulted in
less tightness than is often appreciated. With other members of the monetary
union not facing the same predicament, financial conditions are comparatively
more restrictive for France. The use of fiscal policy, which could be used to break
the mould in such a situation, is however significantly constrained by already high
debt levels. As a result, we argue France might have to continue going through a
process of internal devaluation. First signs of this adjustment bearing fruit are
showing, but based on the experience of other European economies, it might take
a while before the process has run its course.
Michel Nies
European Equity Strategy - Burnham By-Election Win: UK Equity Implications
Andy Burnham's local election win opens up a challenge to PM Starmer. While
timing remains uncertain, Citi economists' see any leadership change as more
likely later in the summer. Burnham has thus far given little steer on policy, but his
premiership would likely imply higher borrowing and potentially higher gilt yields.
For equities, higher yields support FTSE 100 outperformance over the more rates-
sensitive/domestically-focused FTSE 250. At the sector level, Real Estate and
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