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The Point for Europe

发布日期: 2026-06-22研究机构: Citi报告页数: 13原文语言: English证据页码: 1

研报英文原文证据摘录

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Monday, 22 June 2026

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European Economics - France – Will the economy remain ‘underpressurised’? Global Economic Outlook & Strategy -

France’s economy appears ‘underpressurised’ compared to peers, with domestic Global Resilience—Could Growth

demand comparatively lacklustre and inflation pressures lower. We argue that, at Surprise to the Upside (Yet Again)?

the root, a structural improvement in labour market fundamentals has resulted in

less tightness than is often appreciated. With other members of the monetary

union not facing the same predicament, financial conditions are comparatively

more restrictive for France. The use of fiscal policy, which could be used to break

the mould in such a situation, is however significantly constrained by already high

debt levels. As a result, we argue France might have to continue going through a

process of internal devaluation. First signs of this adjustment bearing fruit are

showing, but based on the experience of other European economies, it might take

a while before the process has run its course.

Michel Nies

European Equity Strategy - Burnham By-Election Win: UK Equity Implications

Andy Burnham's local election win opens up a challenge to PM Starmer. While

timing remains uncertain, Citi economists' see any leadership change as more

likely later in the summer. Burnham has thus far given little steer on policy, but his

premiership would likely imply higher borrowing and potentially higher gilt yields.

For equities, higher yields support FTSE 100 outperformance over the more rates-

sensitive/domestically-focused FTSE 250. At the sector level, Real Estate and

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