Nextdoor Holdings Inc (NXDR.N)：社区飞轮加速WAU增长，产品驱动的杠杆将在2026年下半年和2027年推动上行

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14 Aug 2026 17:41:28 ET │ 16 pages

Nextdoor Holdings Inc (NXDR.N)

Community Flywheel Accelerating WAU Growth with Product-Led

Levers to Drive Upside in 2H26 and ‘27

CITI'S TAKE

We are updating our model following 2Q26 results whereby revenue

growth accelerated to +14.5% Y/Y and Platform WAUs grew +5% Y/Y (+0.6M

Q/Q). Underpinning NXDR’s improving trajectory, we are encouraged by

ongoing platform improvements (e.g. Feed ranking models, video

integrations, and post insights) driving contributors to ATHs with post &

comment volume growth, suggesting NXDR’s local community flywheel is

strengthening WAU growth, with +Q/Q expansion implied throughout

2026. Looking ahead, we expect further catalysts supporting WAUs (Ask &

Faves being integrated into the Feed), monetization (Video, Search,

Opportunity Alerts) and operating leverage (line of sight to positive quarterly

GAAP net income in 4Q26E), and therefore raise our TP to $2.85 from

$2.30. While incrementally positive on NXDR’s trajectory, we maintain our

Neutral/HR rating as we’re watching for greater visibility into the durability

of NXDR’s growth into ‘27E.

Highlights from the Quarter:

– Overall Results: Revenue and EBITDA Better than Expected: Revenue of $74.6

million (+14.5% Y/Y; accelerating ~70bps Q/Q) came in ~3% above consensus,

underscoring healthy advertiser demand with Platform ARPU of $3.26 (+9.0%

Y/Y) coming in ~0.5% above our projection. Supporting NXDR’s revenue

momentum, Self-Serve revenue growth accelerated to +32% Y/Y in 2Q (vs. +28%

Y/Y in 1Q), with traction across key verticals (Home Services, Tech & Telco,

Healthcare, Financial Services) and monetization continues to improve through

higher CPM ad formats (e.g. Video Ads) and lower funnel tools (e.g. Click

Optimization & Search). Adjusted EBITDA of $9.5 million was better than

consensus of $5.3 million and guidance of $4-$6 million.

n

Neutral / High Risk

Price (14 Aug 26 16:00)

US$2.58

Target price

US$2.85↑

from US$2.30

Expected share price return

10.5%

Expected dividend yield

0.0%

Expected total return

10.5%

Market Cap

US$998M

Price Performance

(RIC: NXDR.N, BB: NXDR US)

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