Mercari: Jun Q Results: Weak Guidance Could Offer Buying Chance; Strong Momentum, Investment for Growth

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 09:02 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Mercari (4385) | Japan

Tetsuro Tsusaka, CFA

Equity Analyst

Jun Q Results: Weak Guidance

Could Offer Buying Chance;

Strong Momentum, Investment

for Growth

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Luyuan Yang, CFA

Equity Analyst

Keiji Nishimura

Research Associate

Mercari (4385.T, 4385 JT)

Unchanged

Modest upside

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Internet | Japan

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Vs. forecasts: F6/27 guidance calls for flat profit, well below consensus, but this

represents the company’s customary conservative floor. Strong recent earnings

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 5, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Avg daily trading value (bn)

Overweight

In-Line

¥5,000

¥4,410

¥727.8

¥8.2

support a high revenue growth target, while increased growth investment keeps

profit guidance flat. Revenue guidance midpoint +20% YoY; profit guidance flat YoY.

With business momentum remaining strong, we would view any share price decline

on below-consensus guidance as a buying opportunity.

Earnings surprise: The Japan Marketplace business delivered strong growth,

exceeding forecasts. From F6/27, the company will pursue global growth by

strengthening cross-border e-commerce. Recommended action: A share price

decline on below-consensus profit guidance would present a buying opportunity.

Business momentum remains strong, and investment is necessary to drive further

growth. Investors should not be distracted by a single year’s profit guidance.

Jun Q — Japan Marketplace: Results significantly beat our forecasts. Fintech:

Strong card growth and Marketplace synergies drove robust revenue and profit

growth. Revenue +44% YoY; core OP +70% YoY; OPM 9.6% (+150bp YoY). Fintech:

Strong card growth and Marketplace synergies drove robust revenue and profit

growth. Revenue +44% YoY; core OP +70% YoY; OPM 9.6% (+150bp YoY).

Exhibit 1:

Summary

F6/26 4Q

Consol. Core OP

Core OP by Seg

Japan Marketplace

Fintech

US

KPI

GMV Japan Marketplace

GMV US

MAU Japan Marketplace

MAU US

F6/27 Forecast

Revenue

…