Mercari (4385) 4Q FY6/26 results: Conservative guidance as expected, while GMV growth drivers continue to diversify

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

05 August 2026

Mercari (4385)

4Q FY6/26 results: Conservative guidance as expected,

while GMV growth drivers continue to diversify

Slightly Positive: FY6/26 core operating profit rose 60.2% YoY to ¥44.2 billion,

modestly above our estimate of ¥42.1 billion and the Bloomberg consensus

estimate of ¥43.1 billion. The strength of 4Q GMV was largely foreseeable based

on external data, and we see management’s initial FY6/27 core operating profit

guidance of ¥45.0 billion or higher as broadly in line with expectations, given its

historical tendency to issue conservative guidance targeting only modest YoY

profit growth. We take a slightly positive view of the announcement of the

company’s first-ever share buyback and the FY6/27 marketplace GMV growth

target of 10-15% YoY.

4Q domestic marketplace GMV grew 26% YoY, exceeding our forecast of 20%

growth. Campaigns such as Super Mercari Market Days performed strongly,

while growth in GMV from the entertainment and hobbies category

accelerated further. GMV growth in the apparel category also improved YoY,

and supported by the strength of the core marketplace business, the fintech

segment delivered 70.2% YoY growth in core operating profit. Recent GMV

trends also appear robust, supported by an expanded user base built through

initiatives such as Super Mercari Market Days. While concerns over the

conservatism of company guidance could weigh on the share price in the near

term, we believe any resulting weakness would enhance the stock’s investment

appeal.

Management targets domestic marketplace GMV growth of 10-15% YoY in

FY6/27. This appears somewhat ambitious, particularly given tougher yearon-year comparisons from 2Q onward. However, the company intends to

achieve this target through a more diversified set of growth drivers, including

cross-border e-commerce and other categories beyond entertainment and

hobbies, in addition to entertainment and hobbies, while taking an appropriate

level of execution risk into account. Admittedly, the lower end of operating

profit guidance implies only modest profit growth despite the ambitious topline target, which is somewhat underwhelming.…