Italian Financials: The 2Q26 previews pack

Research evidence excerpt

Italian Financials: The 2Q26 previews pack

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Industry Date

Italy 9 July 2026

Italian Financials

Banks Industry Update

Banks

The 2Q26 previews pack

Giovanni Razzoli, CFA

Another Good Set Of Results Is Ahead Of Us Research Analyst

The Italian Banks index posted a 7% gain in June, anticipating a good set of results +39-02-40245212

in 2Q, accelerated M&A activity and strong rate sensitivity. We expect the banking

Rishika Garg

sector to deliver net income of EUR 7.2bn. NII should post a reassuring trend of Research Associate

+2.6% q/q (flat y/y). Our full-year NII growth estimate of ~2% y/y and especially

those for 2026-27 (+2% and +3%) remain conservative, in light of the expectations

implied in the forward curve. Key Changes

Company Target Price Rating

Banks: MPS Remains Top Pick BAMI.MI 13.70 to 16.20 -

We reiterate our BUY rating on MPS (TP EUR 12), which remains one of our top picks BGN.MI 66.00 to 76.40 -

due to its indirect exposure to Intesa SanPaolo. We also increase our target price for BMED.MI 20.50 to 24.80 -

BancoBPM to EUR 16.2 per share, maintaining a BUY rating, as it has a central role

MDBI.MI 18.80 to 29.40 Hold to Buy

in Italian M&A. Also, we believe consensus estimates for BAMI are too pessimistic,

Source: Deutsche Bank

and a share buyback of approximately EUR 1bn (around 4% of current market cap)

is likely in the coming years.

Asset Gatherers: Rewarding Players For The Long-Term Growth

We expect asset gatherers to show strong results, with net income of EUR 644mn

(+7% y/y), driven by significant fee and NII growth. Total inflows reached EUR

26.6bn year-to-date, a 20% increase from the prior year. We have increased our

target price for Banca Generali to EUR 76.4 per share, driven by a higher long-term