BANCA MONTE DEI PASCHI DI SIENA / BANCO BPM : Will there be a wedding?

Research evidence excerpt

BANCA MONTE DEI PASCHI DI SIENA / BANCO BPM : Will there be a wedding?

The next M&A chapter may give rise to the

“third pole”

The Italian banking sector has experienced an unprecedent wave of consolidation and

attempted consolidation with BPER buying BPSO, BMPS buying Mediobanca and

Unicredit failing with its offer on Banco BPM. While investors are focused on assessing

what’s next, we take a deep dive into the potential shape of the next deal. Press reports

(link) suggest BMPS and Banco BPM as ideal candidates for a merger. As such, we have

outlined how a combined entity may look.

A brief recap of the Italian M&A saga

From late 2024 to May 2026 the Italian banking sector experienced a wave of high-profile

M&A attempts, defensive shareholding moves, and regulatory interventions. In this

section we recap the main events. In November 2024, UniCredit made the first move,

announcing an unsolicited hostile bid for Banco BPM. The following winter (2025), BMPS

launched an all-share, voluntary public exchange offer for Mediobanca, signalling the

first of several ambitious consolidation attempts. Barely two weeks later, BPER joined

the dealflow, unveiling an offer for BPSO.

In this backdrop the Italian government issued its “golden power” decree, imposing

conditions on the potential acquisition of Banco BPM. Amid mounting pressure, UniCredit

pulled its Banco BPM bid in July 2025 and in the aftermath Crédit Agricole increased its

stake in Banco BPM to over 20%. BPER has been the first among the large banks to

close a deal, winning a majority of BPSO shares in July 2025, while in September BMPS

unexpectedly secured the majority of Mediobanca shares. The newsflow intensified when

Italian prosecutors opened an investigation into the BMPS-Mediobanca deal

in December last year.