BANCA MONTE DEI PASCHI DI SIENA / BANCO BPM : Banco BPM proposes a merger with BMPS

Research evidence excerpt

BANCA MONTE DEI PASCHI DI SIENA / BANCO BPM : Banco BPM proposes a merger with BMPS

Refinitiv

we estimate cEUR950 pre-tax synergies vs. the EUR1.1bn targeted by Banco BPM. The cost savings account for 10%

vs. our 18% estimate. We clearly see scope for stronger cost savings.

EPS accretion similar to our estimates, capital slightly better. The higher than 10% EPS accretion is aligned with

our initial estimates which were pointing to 12% EPS accretion in case of a BAMI-BMPS deal. That said, the CET-1

ratio at 15% after the transaction is c50-70bp higher than the one we estimated, partly due to lower restructuring costs

and probably lower fair value adjustments.

Next steps: We now need to wait for BMPS’ board of directors reply to BAMI’s letter which is set to meet to review the

proposal. We think the current proposal of Banco BPM is a sensible starting point for a friendly discussion between the

two banks. Having said that, we also highlight the transaction may be more difficult without the support of key large

shareholders (ie Delfin and Caltagirone which hold c17.5% and 10.3% respectively in BMPS) and the lack of a premium

may weight on this.

Overall, the “marriage” proposal came more quickly than expected and probably chatter on a potential joint bid from

ISP and BPER over BMPS has accelerated the decision taken by the Banco BPM board. In this respect the offer

presented this morning by Intesa (see our comment - BANKS: ISP and BPER launch a bid on BMPS) makes the process

more competitive so we think that BMPS’ share price should be strong on the back of the two rival bids over the bank.

BNP Paribas Research Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena / Banco BPM 8 JUNE 2026 page 2

jholodak@ucsd.edu Jamie Holodak 06/14/26 06:41:15 PM University of California San Diego