Italian Financials: 1Q26 - The post view pack

Research evidence excerpt

Italian Financials: 1Q26 - The post view pack

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Industry Date

Italy 18 May 2026

Italian Financials

Banks Industry Update

Banks

1Q26 - The post view pack

Giovanni Razzoli, CFA

Strong 1Q Results Research Analyst

Italian financials reported another good set of results in the 1Q with beats across the +39-02-40245212

board (except Mediobanca still navigating its transition). At consolidated level both

Rishika Garg

banks and asset gatherers posted better-than-expected bottom-line numbers, Research Associate

exceeding DBe by 16% and 7%, respectively. 1Q results represented a "relief

achievement" for BFF in the current operating environment. Following the earnings

season, our bottom line for 2026-28E remains broadly unchanged for banks, and up Key Changes

by 2% for asset gatherers on average.

Company Target Price Rating

BMPS.MI 11.00 to 12.00 -

Bank: Growth Accelerates Amidst Mixed Market Signals EMII.MI - Buy to Hold

NII was down -1% q/q and y/y due to calendar effects but exceeded DBe, with

Source: Deutsche Bank

lending activity accelerating from +2.7% y/y in 4Q to +3.1% in 1Q with the sector

catching up with the trends at Spain and Greece. Fees were 5% better than

expected (+4% y/y), operating costs (-1% y/y) were 3% lower than DBe, leading to

a C/I of 38%. Cost of risk of 21 bps (vs 54bps in 4Q25 and 20bps in 1Q25) remained

well under control. After results, our estimates for the bank remain broadly

unchanged. In terms of price action, Italian banks exhibited mixed performance in

the recent results season, with BAMI and UCG showing the best pricing action

(owing to good reporting at BAMI and guidance upgrade at UCG) and BPER the

worst (penalized by a disappointing guidance on CET1).

Downgrade of BPER to Hold