MGY - Quick Take - Thoughts on Potential WildFire Acquisition

Research evidence excerpt

MGY - Quick Take - Thoughts on Potential WildFire Acquisition

Truist Securities

Equity Research Report June 29, 2026

ENERGY: Exploration & Production Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY)

MGY - Quick Take - Thoughts on Potential WildFire Acquisition Gabe Daoud

212-303-4193

Gabe.Daoud@truist.com

Largest deal for MGY ahead? On Friday after the market close, a Bloomberg report

suggested MGY is in the lead to acquire Wildfire Energy (Private) for over $4Bn, a stark

Frankie DiGiovanna contrast compared to the company's traditional blocking and tackling strategy and would 212-326-3158

Francis.DiGiovanna@truist.com mark MGY's largest acquisition in company history. Industrial logic is there - and this

represents a deal investors have long anticipated - given significant acreage overlap that

likely creates robust synergy opportunity. And we note this would add significant scale to Eric Look MGY from both an acreage and production standpoint likely taking pro-forma oil volumes 212-303-4174

Eric.Look@truist.com to the ~100kbd level. Our work suggests $4Bn is a bit rich based on publicly available

disclosure around the asset base - a rough PDP + undeveloped model on updated strip

pricing suggests fair value around ~$3.4Bn. A $4Bn valuation on a headline basis implies a

rich ~$3.5MM+ per location relative to recent Eagleford deals, a '27e EV/EBITDAX multiple

Current Price (Jun. 26, $26.78 of ~6.x, but a more reasonable ~$2k/acre based on acreage, and a FCF yield of ~14%.

2026) Nonetheless, the $4Bn figure could embed synergies which again appear likely and perhaps

Stock Rating HOLD sizable given the acreage overlap. Financing will be interesting for MGY as the balance sheet is pristine with net debt/EBITDA of just 0.4x on a trailing basis exiting 1Q26. Unchanged