MGY: Post-1Q26 Adjustments; Lowering PT

Research evidence excerpt

MGY: Post-1Q26 Adjustments; Lowering PT

Equity Research

Price Target Change — May 12, 2026

Exploration & Production

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp.

Post-1Q26 Adjustments; Lowering PT Equal Weight

Price Target: $31.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

MGY delivered another steady quarter with consistent execution, unchanged FY26 Price Target $31.00 $32.00 -3.1%

guidance, and incremental bolt-on acquisitions that extends inventory. Improving oil EPS 2026 2.89 3.28 -11.9%

differentials and unhedged production profile should support stronger 2Q FCF capture. EPS 2027 2.43 2.49 -2.2%

Rev. (MM) 2026 1.63B 1.71B -4.8%

Production Trajectory & Activity Cadence. MGY reiterated its FY26 outlook, targeting Rev. (MM) 2027 1.55B 1.53B 0.8%

~5% production growth within a $440-$480mm D&C capital program. For 2Q26, the

company guides to production of ~105 mboe/d alongside $120-$125mm of capital Ticker MGY

spending. We model 2Q–4Q26 total vols of 105.5 / 106.8 / 108.1 mboe/d and capex of

Upside/(Downside) to Target 8.2%

$122 / $107 / $107mm. For FY26, we forecast oil and total vols of 41.1 mbbl/d and 105.8

mboe/d, translating to ~3%/6% oil/total production YoY growth on ~$465mm of capex. Price (05/12/2026) $28.64

52 Week Range $21.07 - 32.76

Bolt-on Acquisitions Extend Inventory Runway. MGY deployed ~$155mm on bolt- Market Cap (MM) $5,249

ons across Karnes and Giddings, adding ~6.2k net acres and ~500 boe/d of low-decline Enterprise Value (MM) $5,376

production. In Karnes, deals create a largely contiguous ~10k gross acre position (~93% Average Daily Value (MM) $83

WI), enabling longer laterals and multi-year inventory based on current development pace. Dividend Yield 2.3%

In Giddings, acquisitions expand exposure across ~45k gross acres, leveraging existing