The Front Reflects Glut, Equities Offer Value

Research evidence excerpt

The Front Reflects Glut, Equities Offer Value

Energy | Global Energy

June 29, 2026

Stephen Richardson The Front Reflects Glut, Equities Offer

212-446-5639

stephen.richardson@evercoreisi.com Value

Chris Baker, CFA Term structure screams oversupply and spec length follows but

917-741-8669 equities should look through the mini glut. Hormuz flows spiked

chris.baker@evercoreisi.com further last week to almost ~10 mmbpd as stranded barrels made it to

Chai Zhao, CFA market. Brent and Dubai have flipped to prompt contango as the first

646-321-3097 wave of stranded Gulf barrels hits an Asian bid gorging on US exports

chai.zhao@evercoreisi.com and soft August+ demand expectations. The high frequency inventory

Jason Bandel data reinforced a similar message; Singapore & ARA products built

212-653-9044 while the pace of US inventory draws slowed. The mini glut will continue

jason.bandel@evercoreisi.com near-term as the release of stranded barrels is temporary (and Gulf

Chris Lee NOCs make production pronouncements looking to attract ballast back

212-653-9041

into the region) and the Chinese buyers strike continues (for now). chris.lee@evercoreisi.com

Further, the weekend headlines suggest risks around re-escalation

remain real. With speculative crude length skewing negatively, most of Table of Contents

our discussions last week centered upon the overcorrection of prompt

▪ Feature: 1) Marking to Market 2Q Refining Ests crude prices setting up a better backdrop for the equities. As we begin

(MPC, VLO, PSX) 2) PR Initiation @ Outperform to contemplate quarter end and reporting season the areas of most

▪ Weekly Recap & News acute upside to estimates include refining (see within), NAM services

▪ Trading Comparables (although WTI approaching a tipping point could quell the voracity) and