2Q26 Preview - Refining, Midstream, Renewable Diesel Deliver

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview - Refining, Midstream, Renewable Diesel Deliver

USA | Refining & Marketing

Marathon Petroleum EquityJulyResearch12, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGE2Q26 Preview - Refining, Midstream, Renewable

RATING BUYDiesel Deliver

PRICE $283.74^

We expect MPC to report 2Q26 EPS of $14.18, ~11% above Cons ($12.78) due

to a combination of strong capture & refining operations, midstream recovering PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $335.00 ($296.00) | +18%

from Storm Fern disruptions, and supportive renewable diesel margins & 52W HIGH-LOW $287.15 - $158.00

RVO tailwinds. We expect refining capture at ~98% and utilization at ~95%. MARKET CAP $0.0M

Midstream growth remains on track. We anticipate buybacks of $2.5bn in the TICKER MPC ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

quarter, the highest level since 3Q24. noted.

2Q26: Against a favorable macro backdrop, we expect MPC to report an EBITDA of $7.10bn, vs FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

Cons of $6.84bn, with the majority of the beat coming from the refining segment. We anticipate 2026 2027 2026 2027

strong operating performance coupled with strong shareholder returns via stable dividends and EBITDA <1% <1% +17% NM

higher buybacks.

EPS -1% <1% +25% +3%

R&M: We forecast segment EBITDA of $5.40bn for 2Q (+292% QoQ and +186% YoY), on the back

of higher margins and volumes. Using the $32.1/bbl gross margin indicator and a 98% capture, we 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

expect $31.47/bbl margin and volumes 5% above 1Q. We note that unlike some peers, MPC bakes EPS 1.73 14.18 17.16 7.39 40.22

market structure headwinds into its indicator i.e. backwardation. In 2Q, jet was less positive QoQ PREV 16.25 13.59 9.34 40.78

but MPC produces more diesel than what is embedded in the 321 crack indicators, which should