HD: 'Ted Talk'; Meeting Takes Post Canada NDR

Research evidence excerpt

HD: 'Ted Talk'; Meeting Takes Post Canada NDR

Equity Research

Company Update — June 24, 2026

Home Improvement

The Home Depot, Inc.

'Ted Talk'; Meeting Takes Post Canada NDR Overweight

Price Target: $360.00

Our Call Ticker HD

Upside/(Downside) to Target 11.0%

CEO mtgs were constructive, w/ focus on category stabilization, NT green shoots & LT

'recovery' opportunity. While macro/rates are obvious NT sticking pts & inflection timing Price (06/23/2026) $324.45

elusive, we see quality, achievable ‘26 bar & LT re-rate pot’l at ~20x ‘27. 52 Week Range $289.10 - 426.75

Market Cap (MM) $323,152

Top takes. We hosted mtgs w/ HD's CEO Ted Decker, IR chief Isabel Janci & Rachael Enterprise Value (MM) $375,060

Sparrow. Notably: 1) HD isn't ready to call recovery, but underlying trends are stabilizing, Average Daily Value (MM) $1,540

breadth broadening (product types, geography) & share gain ongoing (vs slightly down Dividend Yield 2.9%

category); 2) As hurricane compares roll off (~50bps), HD needs little change in trend to

underwrite gradual comp improvement; 3) Ample idio drivers via SRS (cross sell, house $ (Jan) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

acct), AI (ops, Magic Apron aka 'HD GPT'), App & productivity. EPS

2026E 3.43 A 4.71 E 3.85 E 2.91 E 14.90 E

Pro/SRS takes. 1) While SRS carries a lower GM% (via mix), HD sees LT offsets via 2027E 3.75 E 5.06 E 4.14 E 3.10 E 16.05 E

ramping volumes (cross sell, etc.), scale, supply chain levers, etc.; SRS improves tuck-

Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

in target margins by ~300bps almost immediately (via ERP, purch power, etc.); 2) SRS NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate

growth historically ~1/3rd each btwn comps (adding +50-100bps LT), greenfields