Shipping: Trade Shifting from Efficiency to Resiliency: A Win for Shipping and Investors

Research evidence excerpt

Shipping: Trade Shifting from Efficiency to Resiliency: A Win for Shipping and Investors

22 June 2026

Shipping

more regionalization, self-sufficiency, confederation, and/or balkanization. While

globalization of trade has been a major driver of cargo volumes, a deglobalization

trend may not necessarily imply less trade, but rather longer voyage distances,

lower logistical efficiencies, more strategic storage requirements, and higher

redundancies in supply chains. This combination should be fundamentally

supportive for shipping tonne-mile demand and rates. When voyages are longer,

loading/discharge is slower and less efficient, and vessels reroute or avoid unsafe

or dangerous regions, the result is the same: less effective available supply.

As it relates to the Strait of Hormuz, tanker owners are looking for the following

conditions to be met before returning to the region: 1) a full cessation of hostilities

in the region and several weeks or months of no hostile attacks on ships or other

marine infrastructure; 2) safe and unrestricted travel conditions that are not

hampered by various state or military actors; 3) normalization of insurance prices

and availability, and; 4) stabilization in the broader region. One panel participant

noted that these conditions have not been met at the current time even if headline

diplomacy has improved. Ship owners remain cautious around risks to their crews

and to their assets. Owners believe that the current conflict will encourage

additional investment in storage infrastructure in various countries and regions

as a way to further bolster strategic oil reserves. The peace agreement is still

relatively fragile, especially as it relates to big questions around whether

hostilities between Israel and Lebanon will persist.