Asia Local Markets Weekly: Round 2

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Local Markets Weekly: Round 2

Deutsche Bank

Research

Asia Fixed Income Date

23 July 2026

Asia Local Markets

Weekly

Round 2

Sameer Goel

Oil is up 30%+ since the beginning of the month, and has dragged both Fed pricing

Macro Strategist

and 10Y Ts wider by ~20bp. But Round 2 of the ME conflict is creating less obvious +65-642-36973

a panic bid for safety than in the early weeks of Round 1. Part of that talks to less

positioning vulnerability; part likely to better policy preparedness, and to improved Perry Kojodjojo

Strategist

confidence in the ability of the world economy to handle higher energy prices.

+852-2203-6153

n The AI/ data centre capex cycle is proving to be a key differentiator for Vaninder Singh, CFA

macro within Asia, building surpluses for the part which exports the Macro Strategist

boom and deficits for the part that imports it. Both AI (demand pull) and +65-6423 8947

energy (cost push) are proving inflationary, and forcing difficult policy Bryant Xu

choices especially in the more domestically-driven economies. We present Strategist

the findings from our NOWcasting and tracker models. +65-6423 5558

n Positioning in Asia has turned more defensive, particularly in FX, with Joey Chung

KRW the only residual long. Even in rates, where market bias overall is still Strategist

received, the conviction levels have diminished, with India the only one with +65-6423 8298

a meaningful extension of received positioning in recent weeks. We detail

the findings from our EPIC+ and EPIC-R indicators. Chen Kan

n Fund flows are again favoring the safety of US government bonds, but not +852-2203-6159

necessarily at the expense of other asset classes, including HY and EM

bonds. Portfolio flows into Asia, outside of tech heavy North Asian equities, Jalaj Singh