What's Really Driving (Un)affordability

Research evidence excerpt

What's Really Driving (Un)affordability

Australia | Insurance EquityJuneResearch17, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:What's Really Driving (Un)affordability

The intersection of claims inflation, natural perils and especially taxes, is TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

materially adding to the cost burden of home insurance, resulting in the IAG AU BUY AUD8.75

domestic insurers being accused of gauging, while the consumer is caught QBE AU BUY AUD26.25

in the middle. With 1.6m households facing affordability stress, we examine SUN AU HOLD AUD18.40

issues regarding the affordability of domestic home insurance and the

implications for future premium growth.

Affordability Stress: Approximately 1.6m Australian households (15%) now face home

insurance affordability stress, up 50% in just two years. These households spend 9.6 weeks

of gross income on home insurance, seven times the non-stressed average. APRA warns that

1 in 4 homes could be uninsured within 25 years if current trends persist - an additional one

million homes lost to the protection gap.

Those who can least afford it are the ones who need it most. More than 70% of households at

highest flood risk earn less than $92,000 per year. ~35% are below the poverty line. Flood risk

and socioeconomic disadvantage are geographically co-located across Australia's east coast.

What about the impact of taxes? Government taxation is the second-largest component

of Australian home insurance premiums after natural peril risk, with state and territory

governments collecting approximately $8.90 billion in insurance taxes during FY24-25. In total

this represented $1.6bn more than the entire domestic insurance industry's NPAT in that year.

Who is really "charging like a bull": NSW remains the only mainland state with a premium-