Insurance Australia Group FY26 Result preview: Margins in 2H26 should be OK – organic GWP weakness to be a closer focus. Downgrade to Neutral given share price

Research evidence excerpt

Insurance Australia Group FY26 Result preview: Margins in 2H26 should be OK – organic GWP weakness to be a closer focus. Downgrade to Neutral given share price

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

23 July 2026

Insurance Australia Group

FY26 Result preview: Margins in 2H26 should be OK – ▼Neutral

organic GWP weakness to be a closer focus. Previous: Overweight

Downgrade to Neutral given share price IAG.AX, IAG AU

Price (22 Jul 26):A$8.44

▲Price Target (Jun-27):A$8.45

Prior (Dec-26):A$7.70

IAG reports its FY26 results on 13th August 2026. We downgrade to Australia

Neutral following a considerable recovery in the share, with our forecasts pointing

Insurance and Diversified Financials

to underlying margins only modestly improving. The positives we previously

flagged – past conservatism on profit commission recognition/BI reserving, Siddharth Parameswaran AC

expense reduction efforts, reinsurance savings and a likely small perils beat are (61-2) 9003-8629

siddharth.x.parameswaran@jpmorgan.com

now largely reflected in the share price. Upside could come from either a successful J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

pursuit of RAC, el nino perils benefits in FY27 or acquisition interest. Downside Tharan Jeyathasan

risks remain cycle impacts, competition and inflation. (61-2) 9003-6098

tharan.jeyathasan@jpmorgan.com

• Key numbers for us vs consensus: FY26 Adjusted NPAT for JPM of J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

$1.027bn vs. cons at $1.066bn (note investment income differences are often Rishi S Parihar

looked through). FY26 Underlying insurance margin for FY26 at 15.2% vs. (91-22) 6157-3775

cons at 15.5%. FY26 Insurance profit at $1.564bn vs. consensus at ~$1.6bn. rishi.parihar@jpmchase.com

FY26 GWP at $18.318bn vs. cons $18.386bn. FY26 DPS at 28 cps vs.